Green shots for the Indian Economy - Lessons from here and there.

I do take a local train for commuting for work and I do meet a lot of strangers discussing the stock market, the economy in general and some rants about the high real estate prices in Mumbai. As they say, I have made some 'train friends' about whom I know nothing, except their destination stations. Yet, we smile and speak about random topics.

The train I take generally has a lot of individual traders running their own firms out of shops based in south Mumbai since generations. These traders are also the ones who trade in stock markets regularly. Since some of them are importers of commodities (distributors), some are exporters and so they are also well informed about the international markets.

The recent stock market collapse and the fall in the commodity prices has also had a detrimental impact on these people. Lots of importers are suffering heavy losses because of the Rupee depreciation against the rupee. Most of them have lost a lot of money. However, they take these losses in their stride and not worry too much and look forward with hope and determination. Every day they laugh and make fun during the commute as though nothing has changed. Every week they have their celebratory sessions of Jalebi -Fafda in the train.

These people have been in the trading business for generations together and have seen many business cycles and they treat this slowdown in the economy as nothing different from the previous ones.

Some importers are highly optimistic and say that India has a great prospect now that China is in trouble. According to them, now is the time India has to invest in building manufacturing infrastructure and compete in areas which have been dominated by the Chinese. According to them, a person who has manufacturing technology and cool head should now consider building factories and setting up infrastructure. Current prices of steel and cements are down, capital goods equipment suppliers currently are offering great discounts. Building capacities and catering to the Indian market (import substitution) should be the way forward.

One trader to whom I spoke while discussing a couple of fragrance compounds said 'Aap manufacturing shuru karo, India mein market ki kami nahi - ban jayega'.


Indeed, some days after I heard this view, I came to know that in my home town, there is a hustle bustle in industrial construction and a lot of cold storage, oil mills and other small scale factory projects are now taken up for implementation. The CAPEX projects that were stalled due to high commodity prices of steel and cement are now re-looked for implementation.


These green spots in the small scale sector in India and the determination of the small traders and manufacturers makes me hopeful about the Indian economy and its future. So, inspite of all the gloom that newspapers and tabloids are talking about, one needs to be disciplined and hopeful about Indian economy.

So, be positive, invest in the stock markets in a disciplined manner, work hard, stay healthy and remain hopeful.

A pleasant experience - TCS

A lot of media coverage was given to TCS for the title sponsoring the New York Marathon event recently and a lot was said about the brand building exercise - some positive and some criticism. While listening to one such debate about TCS, I recalled a pleasant and a seamless experience I had at the TCS campus some months back.

I had chosen to be a scribe for a visually challenged friend of mine for the RBI recruitment examination to be held at the TCS office in suburban Mumbai. I expected that since this is a government conducted examination, there will be a lot of hassles. However, on reaching the campus, I realized that the entire examination exercise was outsourced to TCS and its employees and staff was responsible for conducting the examination.  

 

The entire experience of registration, verification, examination was very pleasant and very smooth. The best part was the treatment of the candidates. Not once there was a display of sympathy; neither was any apathy shown. The treatment was just about adequate. Adequate attention was paid to all the requirements of the candidates.  

The watchmen and the security staff was given the respinsibility of administration and ushering the candidates inside to their respective places, technical employees of TCS was given the responsibility of examination (the exam was a computer administered test), the managers were given the task of verification and other asks where fast decision-making was necessary . The entire team comprised approximately 15-20 youngsters with 3 managers of mid-age.  

Some instance which I found noteworthy were - 

1. The verification process - a lot of candidates had brought only the original document of identity proof whereas the requirement was that a photocopy that had to be attached. A government organisations would have asked candidates to go outside and get copies. The TCS employees on the other hand took the originals and got the photocopies made and returned the originals to the candidates without giving trouble to anyone.  

2. Knowing that the candidates were visually impaired, arrangements were in place to communicate using loud speakers and there were volunteers available in case of any trouble.  

3. Seating arrangement was paid adequate attention to. It was ensured that there is adequate space between two candidates so that when a candidate speaks to the scribe others are not affected.  

4. The canteen of the office was opened up for the candidates inspite of it direct being a holiday for the staff.  

In short, careful planning was done for conducting the examination and attention to details was paid by the company in every regard.  

For me personally, this meticulous planning and implementation of the examination smoothly was a demonstration of the company capability. This pleasant experience will make sure that I will always look upon TCS with respect. No branding exercise can help inculcate such a goodwill. 

However, it is good to see that an Indian brand is participating in an event of global repute and doing well. I hope many more Indian companies are able to create an impact globally .  

Tweet

On Multi-level marketing

Multi-level marketing phenomenon has been in the Indian market since a long time now. I got to know of this concept when my maternal uncle joined the Amway bandwagon. Ever since, I have come across a lot of multilevel marketing brands from Tupperware to Speak Asia to now Q-net that have made it to the upper middle class Indian markets.

Tupperware and Amway are product-specific companies while Speak Asia is online survey based and Q-Net is selling what - Luxury holidays and luxury products which one doesn't really require.

I was approached by one of my batchmate who had joined one Q-net to discuss about the prospect of me joining her circle. I met her and a collegue of her who had recently joined Qnet leaving an esteemed job at a global logistics company. During the meeting, I wasn't informed anything about the company or its products. The pitch rested heavily on how doing something on my own - part-time was the only way to have assured money for the future and how joining Q-net was the best solution. The pitch was more about motivating me to do something other than a job rather than about explaining me about the company. Details of the company and the products were sent to me by email. Examples about how a lot of people who have joined Q-net have become rich suddenly were provided. At the end of the meeting, inspite of telling very little about the company or my role, the person had the audacity to tell me that very limited time is available  and he needed me to confirm my intent soon by transferring around Rs. 2 lakh. Imagine someone - a stranger- asked me for Rs. 2 lakh over a cup of coffee. I straight away declined to join such a proposition and never gave a thought about the episode.

However, today I was shocked to know that one of my friend who, I believe has a good financial acumen, has actually joined such an entity. He is a Chartered Accountant and is extremely calculative about the investments he makes. Yet, it is extremely disappointing to know that he has joined such an entity. Someday or the other, I believe such an entity is going to bust. Some news has already started cropping up in this regard.

I fail to understand how the lure of fast money is so prevalent - even among learned, well educated people working for some of the best MNCs in the country. How can people working at good posts of respectable companies be duped to fall for such schemes? How can such educated people  invest so much money somewhere without and paperwork and without and guarantee is beyond my thinking?

In my opinion, one must never believe any investment scheme which promises more than 12-14% return. Such schemes are bound to bust eventually.

I hope others do not fall prey to such ponzi schemes and do not invest in such phony schemes.

Tweet

Contrasting Public Ganesh festival celebrations in Mumbai and Sangli

Ganesh festival is one of the most important festivals celebrated in India; especially in Maharashtra. Publicized by Lokmanya Tilak to bring people together for freedom struggle, the way the festival is celebrated has changed considerable with time. In fact, different places have different ways in which the festival is celebrated.

I've closely watched the festival celebrated in Mumbai and Sangli, a small town in western part of Maharashtra and there is a lot of difference in the way the festival is celebrated. The basic concept of bringing the Ganesha idol at homes or public 'pandals' (Sarvajanik Ganpati) for a period of 1.5,3,5,7,9 or 11 days remains the same as has been traditionally being carried out over the years. And yes, on the idol immersion day called Visarjan Day, both the cities have a similarly charged-up atmosphere - People dance on streets, play music at decibel levels that cross the maximum level of a sound meter, litter the roads, use firecrackers; politicians try to exploit the opportunity by providing free food and water, police try hard to control the traffic are common site in both the cities.  However, the manner in which the celebrations are held at Sarvajanik Ganpati pandals differs a lot in these two cities.

In Mumbai, public celebrations involve bringing an idol of Ganesha, keeping it in the pandals for the stipulated number of days and then immersing the idol into the sea (called Visarjan). The focus is on the beauty and the size of the Ganesha idol in the pandals. There is a competition between different pandals w.r.t the grandeur of the idol and the number of people attracted by the idols. People visit different pandals offering prayers to the Ganesha idols. Some old public pandals like 'The Lalbaug cha Raja', 'Ganesh Galli', 'Wadala cha Raja' have acquired holy status where hordes and hordes of people offer prayers and ask for wishes to the large, grand Ganesha idols. People from different parts of Maharashtra come to Mumbai and wait in queues for hours together to get one look at Ganesha.

In contrast to the focus of the grandeur of the idols and offering only prayers and asking for wishes, the focus of Ganesha public celebrations in Sangli have their focus on bringing people together, spreading some message amongst them, educating children about the myths and a host of other such things. The focus is on creating picturesque visuals using costumes, lights and other mechanical equipment on temporarily built stages to depict different events of history or stories of importance. Here, as well, people from nearby villages and towns travel to have a look at the visuals in different parts of the city.

This implies that in Sangli, every year there is something new displayed on the public pandals. On some occasions, there is a depiction of a King kong shaking the stage, sometimes there is a Himalayan cave made using wood, and sometimes you have a burning train story shown on stage using toys to generate awareness of no smoking in trains. These creative activities help bring a lot of people connect and explore different things and at the same time educate people. A lot of pandals are handed over to children where they are given a chance to display anything they want on the stage. Ofcourse, there is a small idol of Ganesha in the pandals. But, the focus of attention is on the displayed visuals/ artwork.  On the other hand in Mumbai, the pandals are always set in a similar manner and there is not much creativity on display. Focus remains only on the idols without making any effort to explore any other possibility. A lot of people I know have now given up on visiting the Sarvajanik pandals because of the monotony.

There is a strong case for Sarvajanik Ganesh pandals  in Mumbai to try something new is creative and educational to bring people together.

Tweet

Role Models

In this ever changing dynamic world, where it has now become customary to rapidly switch jobs, it has become pretty much common sight to see employees complaining about their managers and the management of the organizations they work for or for those they previously worked for. I often come across a lot of people complaining about how their bosses are too lazy to work, how less their work is appreciated, how the politics in the organization is destroying their career, how the management of the organization shows apathy to their condition and so on. However, one fine day when I came across a couple of people who were all praises for their organization and its founder, it was a pleasant change from the usual bickering remarks.

These two employees, of a mid-sized chemical company, whom I had a half hour conversation with considered the founder of their organization as their role models. The sincerity in which they spoke about their organization and its working clearly showed how deeply they revered the founding chairman of their company. One of them went on to explain how this founder, who was a role model for him, in spite of being around 60 years of age would rush to the top of a distillation column (6 floor height in general) at times of troubles in plant operations. He shared stories about how this founder was able to keep the company afloat during tough times and how now he has been able to bring to company to where it is today. These two gentlemen clearly were inspired by the work and life of this founder and tried to learn as much as possible from this role model founder of theirs.

Generally, celebrities, sportsmen, successful businessmen and well known personalities are considered as role models by people. While the stories of these successful and well-known people are good for inspiration, I believe a role model should be one who inspires plus is easy to talk to / interact. By having your role model to speak to you, he can as well be a mentor + role model who will be able to guide you and at the same time inspire you by his deeds.
Going by that definition students/youngsters shall have fathers/mothers/teachers/guardians as their role models cum mentors; while working people should have their bosses/ founding chairmen as their role models.

South Indian actors - Popularity

Why are the South Indian actors so high on popularity? The thought occurred when I was in Chennai some years back when I saw long queues of people waiting for watching the first day first show of a new movie. People were waiting the whole night for the opening show of a Tamil movie. Such is the popularity of another South Indian actor Rajnikanth that I have heard some NRI’s coming to India only to watch the movie in movie halls with the crowd. Watching Dhanush in a new promo of the upcoming movie Raanjhanaa made me ponder on the same point again. What is it about the South Indian actors that make them have such huge fan following? Why do the other actors in Mumbai/ Bollywood, inspite having such wide reach, not have popularity as loyal and dedicated as the South Indian ones?

I believe that the image they have off screen has a great deal to do this with. The Bollywood actors generally have larger than life images even in the off-screen world. They generally want to live up to their on screen image in their public life as well. In contrast, the off-screen image of South Indian actors is that of simplicity, humility, unfussiness and down to earth personality, totally in contrast to their on screen image. I think this sets the South Indian actors apart from the other Bollywood actors. When one looks at Rajnikanth without make-up, it is hard to believe that he is one of the greatest actors ever born in this soil.  He always makes himself appear as one of us. I think this is what leads to a connection with the fans. The look of Dhanush in the promos of Raanjhanaa and what he is off screen is also similar.

I am generally not a huge follower of the movies and no ways an expert in this. However, this proves that simplicity and humility are great traits to win over hearts. 

Tweet

Some observations in chemical sector

I have been working in the USD 3 trillion chemical industry since the past 4 years and I have observed that this industry has peculiar and unique things which are not generally observed in the other sectors.

1.      Strategic Joint Ventures between competitors - The chemical industry must be the only industry in which fierce competitors have joint ventures extensively. (Yes, Samsung and Apple too fall into a similar category but that is an exception).

E.g - SABIC and Exxon Mobil are strong competitors w.r.t crude refining and petrochemicals. However, they have set up JV Al-Jubail Petrochemical Company (KEMYA) in the middle-east to make specialty elastomers.

Three things determine JVs in this sector:

a. Access to the RMs

b.Access to technology

c. Access to markets.

Pure economic factors come into play. Producers are even ready to consume materials supplied by competitors if the landed price at their premises is lower than their supplied price.

For eg:- Akzo Nobel in India uses a product called tertbutylhydroperoxide (TBHP) manufactured in Europe by a competitor (LyondellBessel) even though Akzo Nobel is the world’s leading manufacturer of this product with plants in Japan, China and USA.

The only place where there can be differentiation is the Specialty chemicals segment which makes up around 20% of the total industry. For the bulk / commodity segment differentiation doesn’t fetch any premium.

Access to Raw Materials and ensuring supply is another major reason for JVs. Jurong island in Singapore is one shining example where most of the large chemical companies have invested together so as to enjoy access to raw materials easily.

In countries like India, China where technology development is a constraint, JVs happen where a foreign company brings in technology and the foreign company gets market access.

Thus, competitors are strategic partners in this sector.

2.      Trader’s knowledge and contribution is most important – To gain economies of scale, the chemical plants, especially for the bulk commodity chemicals, are of large sizes and are concentrated at few locations (where raw material is available). As a result, the chemical manufacturers are heavily dependent on the traders to distribute their products worldwide. Because the manufacturers are dependent on traders, they generally do not know much about the local markets. The knowledge about the end user market is generally amongst trading population. A few occasions, I have found that traders and middle-men have better knowledge about the applications of a product as compared to the manufacturer. A lot of middlemen are also required for regulatory approval of the products for use in food and pharmaceutical industry. These regulations are different in different countries. 

      Thus, distributors and traders play a significant role for this sector and contribute to the growth of the sector much more when compared to other industries.

3.      Low profile & information asymmetry – The industry is generally low profile with not much news about this sector appearing in the news and media (other than Oil and gas). The technology barrier which causes information asymmetry plays a major role in keeping the number of major players limited in this field. Constant innovation and changing regulations also causes limited information about different manufacturers and their processes to be in public domain. As a result, consultants and market researchers play a strategic role in this industry – much more than any other sector in my opinion. Also, because the industry is generally B2B and understanding the products require some technical knowledge, very limited information is generally known to general population and as a result the industry is low profile. Since the industry is generally upstream, the growth in chemical sector sets the pace of other downstream sectors and I believe that chemical sector acts as an indicator for other industries.

4.      Growing and Hiving off –  The chemical sector is one of the oldest industries in the world and as such there are plants that have been in place since a long time with managements changing over a period of time.  A look at the histories of Evonik and Ineos since 1890's till today show the intensive M & A’s that have happened for a chemical plant. Probably, consolidation is a regular characteristic of the chemical sector. As companies grow by M&A’s, the number of products increase and there comes a time when it is not possible for a company to oversee all these products and so to optimize the product portfolios, some sectors of the acquired company are hived off. Most of the M&A’s in this sector is based on the concept of hiving off a particular business unlike other industries complete companies are generally sold or acquired.

5.       Technology and Risk – The chemical sector thrives on innovation. New products, processes, applications are discovered continuously. Manufacturing any major new product on a commercial scale requires setting-up a capital intensive plant. There is always a risk that the new technology or the process may not work on a commercial level. There have been several occasions when technology has failed to help produce the desired product and the whole capital expenditure had to be written off. Also, because of the race to be the first to come up with products, there have been cases when excess capacities have been created and the margins have been rendered to nil on many occasions. At present such a thing is developing in USA. Because of the envisaged shale gas boom, a lot of capital intensive plants producing ethylene & derivatives are being developed. There shall be excess supply of these ethylene derivatives in the future and unless new applications for these are developed, there is a risk of the capex to fail partially or completely.  Thus, risks associated with this sector are high and have huge implications.

The chemical field is such a vast and complex field that many people fail to recognize the enormity of this sector. Large chemical companies like Dow, Exxon, BASF, Chevron, Shell, DSM, Akzo Nobel, Lyondell, Reliance, etc. have become so huge in size and contribute so significantly to the GDPs of their respective nations that they have a major say in the policy making. 

In support of Ordinariness

I was catching up on the railway budget on the social networking sites to know what all announcements were made during the railway budget and I noticed that there were some specific things that were discussed (and ridiculed) much more than other major announcements of the railway budget. The announcement of providing free Wi-Fi facilities on some trains caused maximum excitement and clamor in the media space as compared to other major announcements. In fact, I believe that this provision of free Wi-Fi facilities would be the least costly of all the promises made during the rail budget. Important announcements like freight cost increase, electrification, thrust on safety, new rail factories, etc which shall use tax payers' money and more critical for economy to progress received very less attention on the social networks and also the media space.


When looking at renting/buying apartments, the amenities provided by the builders are highlighted everywhere. However, things like the kind of build, internal plumbing, etc. which actually matter the most are rarely discussed. Much less is said about people working for the utilities like electricity generation, production, water treatment, etc when they actually form the backbone of the economy.

The human tendency for adventure, for doing something different from routine coupled with constant validation by the media are some reasons we tend to focus more on the unusual and unique aspects of things. This focus on extraordinary things causes one to think of the usual ordinary things as boring. This has led to consideration of jobs in production, clerk jobs, and government jobs as ordinary and boring. As a result, less and less people like going to these jobs (which are in fact very important for the economy) and so sub-standardness becomes rampant there leading to the reduction of overall output. In the future, I feel there shall be shortage of people willing to join these fields for work (in spite of the availability of skills).

Something ought to be done to make usual ordinary jobs more desirable. Parents, media and people should together focus and highlight the favorable aspects of the usually routine jobs so as on looks forward to the jobs.

I have worked in a plant before and I can tell from personal experience that working in shifts helps cultivate long term friendships, inculcate a sense of discipline and respect for others.

Before closing this preachy post, I would like to highlight that the billionaire Warren Buffet has grown his empire by investing in sectors like railways and solar power. So, my urge is to look at things in their entirety and not get carried away only by what is highlighted by the media.

As I am writing this, there is an outrage over Women’s bank (announced in the Union Budget) on twitter. Completely trivial.

Moving from being average to more

Have not posted anything on the blog since long. Reasons include my laziness, my same routine life which inhibited me from getting new experiences to blog about and yes lots of time spent on twitter. Most of my time online is now spent on twitter. It is one of the most interesting medium of social network. Lets see what replaces twitter in the battle of social network.

Since some days, I've been wondering about the reasons as to why the high achievers of so many schools, the toppers of so many schools, colleges, the ones who have shown a lot of potential during their education, after completion of their education fail to make a big mark. I have seen a lot of individuals who had shown immense skills of persuasion, leadership and adaptability during school days. Yet, after their education, much of that flair is not visible. I believe that the most important reason for such a behaviour is settling down in their lives. After their education is complete, most of these high achievers join a large corporates or join their family business (wherever applicable). After joining large corporates, these individuals are made to work on select problem of the corporate much like so many other people. Most f these individuals are relegated to a typical 9 to 6 job which involves the same routine of commuting to the place of work, working for the stipulated time and then going back to their residences. These individuals, generally, come across the same set of people everyday who are almost similar to them in therms of thought processes. As such there is not much scope for new ideas to come forth. In other words, settling down in life causes these high achievers to lead a life similar to others and eventually these individuals who were earlier high acheivers now become average or above average individuals. Yes, the perform well at their jobs, earn reputation of being good, but in my opinion they are still average individuals who once had potential to be extra ordinary. The most important factor for this is coming across the same set of individuals everyday and not getting new experiences in life. To come out of this monotony, the individual has to meet different set of people everytime discovering how problems can be solved in different ways. An individual should try and meet as many people as possible, interact with them and get different points of views and help come up with new ideas which might help the individual to rise out of the ordinary. The network that the individual would have built in the process shall prove to be of immense importance in the future as well.

The above quite applies to me. I have been leading a very routine life since the past year or so and have not met a new person (or even an old colleague) since quite sometime. I have decided to meet different people in the coming time, update this space more often, get different point of views and try and build network to fall back upon in the future.
Tweet

Thoughts on Holidays

It has been long that I've posted anything on this blog, maybe I'm too busy watching movies, arguing with roommates, reading useless books, following unknown people on twitter or wasting time at work preparing project reports only to be ultimately rejected.  But finally something has now been posted here.

The idea of holidays & vacation brings joy on everyone's face from children to adults, from home makers to businessmen - just about everyone. I'm going to take a break of around 4 days from work next week and that triggered this post.

For me and a lot of others who stay in a different city away from their parents for work, holidays mean family time visiting my hometown and enjoy food made by my mother and aunties. Once a year, we visit hill stations like Mahabaleshwar where we spend time in a hotel and visit a few prominent places coupled with good food. But the idea has always been to relax and enjoy the delicious food available at the place. With friends, holidays have been visiting a place and chit chatting for hours together.
In short, my idea of a holiday or an outing for the weekend has always been spending quiet time with others and enjoy good food either at home or another place.

However, the idea of holiday now seems to be changing atleast in urban India - weekend treks, adventure sports, beaches, etc now seem to be the way to spend long weekends or holidays. Weekends are planned well in advance and people try to visit maximum places possible in a short span of time. As such a lot of time is wasted travelling and not much on spending quiet time. The inclination is more towards high exertion trips packed with long journeys, adventure sports trying to get unique experiences during the trips.

Yes and the focus is capturing photographs (fit to be used as dps and cover pics) rather than enjoying the beauty around. The tendency to capture more and more of ourselves into the digital media rather than going alongwith the flow of the place is on a rise since the advent of facebook. Not that I'm complaining but stating observation.

The point is that the idea of a weekend holiday is changing rapidly in India, especially urban India and marketeers of travel plans have a great opportunity by creating customized offerings.
However, for me, the old boring style of holiday in a good hotel with family and friends and good food is the right way.

Tweet

A case of Unjustified ROI

I finally could make it to the much hyped "The Dark Knight Rises" & found the movie enjoyable to watch. Though, I'd say I liked the previous part - "The Dark Knight" more. Nevertheless, a movie that was worth the hype. For more explanation on how the previous movie was better, one could read this lovely piece written by Mr. Ray.

This was the first time I bought tickets using group discount sites. Until now, bookmyshow.com had been my gateway for movie tickets. The tickets were made available at half the actual prices by the Indian subsidiary of Groupon, the group discount site that made a big-bang entry into the US capital markets last year. The Indian subsidiary is called Crazeal (Crazy + Deal). Surprisingly, I'd not heard of the name before I got the tickets delivered to my place.  Nevertheless, I got a good deal and could watch the movie at a good cinema hall at half the price.

However, when I thought about the company offering me discount, I began to wonder at the cost it had incurred to successfully organize the occasion. A rough estimate of the costs can be easily done:

1. I do not think PVR would have offered any discount to crezeal.com on the tickets since the movie was in its first week and would have run full even if crazeal.com was not involved. So, I think the organizing group had to pay PVR full ticket prices. Considering there were 600 seats all worth Rs. 350 (Actually there were 590 seats and around 25 were premium tickets. But for estimating, I think 600 shall do) and considering crazeal.com would have paid for half out of its own pocket, that would amount to Rs. 175 x 600 = Rs. 1,05,000 only for the tickets.
2. As an additional promotion measure, key-chains of batman were gifted to each member of the audience. Considering a cost (rough estimate of Rs 10 per key-chain), that would have amounted to Rs. 10 x 600 = Rs. 6000. 
3. A crew of 6 people (I could spot 6 people in their crazeal T-shirts) for ensuring the event goes smoothly would have also cost. Say Rs. 400 per hour. So, that amounts to Rs. 400 x 6 x 3 = Rs. 7200 (T-Shirt cost included).
4. The tickets were couriered for those who booked the tickets 3 days in advance. Say 30 % people preferred to get the tickets before (I believe the count would have been higher looking at the less rush at the counter to collect the tickets but a conservative estimate). So, around 180 couriers at around Rs. 15 per courier (Along with the flashy ticket cover), that amounts to Rs. 180 x 15 = Rs. 2700. 
5. I could see atleast 3 large sized posters of crazeal.com in the cinema hall. Say the total cost there for printing and accessories was Rs. 1000.


There are the visible costs. There would have been a lot of invisible costs in terms of internet marketing costs and other losses due to payment gateways, but lets say those have been included above. Still, the minimum cost which I estimate would have been incurred to organize the event would have been Rs. 1,21,900 say Rs. 1.22 Lakhs. As against this, what as the brand achieved:


What have the organizers achieved? Made me aware of the existence of such the Groupon, Inida subsidiary. I shall once or twice visit the site, see if I've anything interesting (I didn't find the site exciting today when I went through it. I would prefer snapdeal.com to find more about discounts). I seriously don't care where I get discounts from as long as I'm getting them & yes, they managed to make me write this. :P


So much was spent for a group of 600 visitors (A few of them were kids as well & most were in groups of 3. So, on an average around 200 unique families) to make aware of a site called crazeal.com. Isn't the cost too much. I shall be glad to know how the managers convinced the management to allow so much expenditure, I would be glad to see their justification on Returns On Investment? Is this the right strategy to develop a sustainable group discount brand in India?

Tweet

Thoughts on Urban Indian Youth

A lot is said about the demographic dividend in South East Asian countries, especially India. A lot of growth is projected based on this young population that exists and that is going to exist in the decade to come. However, when I see the youth, especially the urban, learned youth, I'm afraid India might lose out on this amazing opportunity and the demographic dividend might become a population problem.
I have come to a conclusion that the urban youth of today has become lazy, impatient, demanding and indifferent.

The urban youth of today does not want to do any work himself/herself. He (Shall keep it to "he" but it is equally applicable to "she") would like to direct someone else to do the work for him. He considers himself to know-it-all even before getting hands on experience. Today's youth wants more money, wants annual (if not half-yearly) double-digit increment, more facilities, favorable working conditions, etc; yet his productivity is not even equal to that given by the older generation. Agreed that the older generation was not so highly educated, but being educated doesn't mean only demanding things. He should also show that the quality of his work and his productivity deserves the amount of resources demanded.
One person who joined a well-known investment banking firm started talking about the expected increment & bonus in the 1st month into work (Mind you, he was a fresher) & started making plans of his next job if the increment was not up to his expectations. I mean, he still didn't know which department he would be in, the work he would be doing; yet all that mattered was the level of bonus / increment to be earned, irrespective of the level of output given.

I myself consider me lazy. When I consider to the number of tasks done by my parents regularly even at this age, I feel ashamed and humbled by my inferiority.

The youth of today, especially the urban youth has become highly demanding. While it is good to demand and know what you want (Customer is king and all), being unreasonable in demands is what it has come to. An uneducated house servant was given a lot many tasks and when he missed out on one insignificant task, he was made to listen to loud lecture without even  knowing the reason behind him not performing the task. Mind you that insignificant task was so simple to be done that the master could have done it in 2 mins without any major troubles. Yet, he didn't do it and gave a big 5 mins lecture to the servant instead.


The level of indifference in today's youth can be seen in any of the shopping malls of any urban/ suburban metro city. The way people communicate to the attendants in restaurants and shops says it all. Apathy is the word when I see a lot of people faking accents in the shopping malls in front of the shop attendants who have a tough time understanding them.


This is the behaviour I've been seeing lately in general in Mumbai among educated young people. I will not even comment on the time wasted by the youth in their places of work. That's a different story altogether. I also shall not say anything on cultural change, parental neglect, etc which I believe depends on youth's upbringing.


There are exceptions to all generalizations and thankfully there are quite a few people who are exceptions to the rule. Hope the youth of today gives up its laziness, indifference and starts to become more tolerant and starts working hard to make true the demographic dividend promise.

Thoughts on Toy Markets in India

It has been sometime I've posted here - partly because of the multitude of things that are there to be read on the internet and partly due to the fact that I've become lazy and spend a lot of time reading unrelated things. But laziness is a different story and I shall discuss it at length some other time.
Now that I am in Mumbai, I have been visiting different malls in the city and a lot many times I go there with a relative who has a kid or with someone who wants to buy some gifts to their relatives' newly born ones. (Its baby boom in India I suppose) As a result, I have been visiting the kids section - especially the toys and games section in search of gifts for kids.

Games and toys have been a very important part of my childhood. Every summer, I used to eagerly go to toy shops in Mumbai, spend days deciding one toy/game (I was allowed one game per vacation) & then buy one at the end of my stay at Mumbai. So, going into this toys divison makes me kind of nostalgic.

According to different press reports, the size of Indian toy market is  between Rs 7500 & Rs 9000 crore with around 15% growth expected annually. Based on this, it seems the demand of toys and games is huge and growing. However, when I look at the supply side, I am largely disappointed. The supply comes from some large global players like Funskool, Hamleys and ofcourse China. Global companies like Mattel, Lego, etc have also now started entering the market through the network of different retail super / hyper markets. However, 90% of the toys still come from the unorganized sector.

What I find disappointing in this supply side is that there is no Indian toy brand that is clearly visible among the so many toys and games in the market. Yes, quite a lot of toys are made in India but the brand is missing. Thee is a huge potential for some new player to establish in the market. Toys related to mythological characters aren't much visible in the urban market. I guess a toy brand which is related to mythological characters depicted in a modern style shall be a good idea to make a dent in the games and toys market jst like Indian comics did in the past by focus on traditional characters.

Another thing I've come to observe is that there is a huge gap in introduction of new products in some segments of this market. Now, the toys and games market can be divided into different categories like:

• Soft toys, dolls, hobby sets
• Educational games like puzzles/ mechanics, craft
• Group Board Games
• Plastic, battery operated & music based toys
• Cars, automobiles

New products are generally introduced in the categories of soft toys, battery operated toys, cars, etc. We can get to see a huge variety in these categories & new products being introduced regularly in these categories. The quality of toys in this category also seems to be getting better and better each day. (No comments on the Chinese toys)

However, in categories like Puzzles and group board games, the number of new additions has been dismal. While I do understand that introducing different shaped/sized products is far easier than developing conceptual games, it feels disappointing to see the same board games in stores as there were 15 years ago. I do see the same games like Monopoly, Scotland Yard, Life, Mechanix, etc. Yes, I did see some new offerings like Don - The game begins, Disney board games; but when I read the concept, the games didn't sound like fun where I, as a kid, would like to spend the whole weekend. Not much innovation is seen in this category of toys and games market.

One more thing I've come to observe is that the small stores meant exclusively for toys have ceased to exist atleast in the tier 1, 2& 3 cities. Now, toys form a section of a gift store or some stationery store. The fact that more and more toys are being sold in the malls means the toys are getting expensive. As such, the lower middle class and also the middle class is not able to afford these toys. I think more such stand-alone games and toy stores should be built.

At my hometown, I recall, we had a library of toys which allowed me to get one toy for each week. That way, I could come across a lot of different toys. I believe such concepts shall give a boost to toys circulation and also help children to imagine, develop and grow.

And last but not the least, with online shopping (e-commerce) increasing in double digits in India, online games and toy stores offer a huge scope. Players like Flipkart, infibeam, etc do have a small section for toys and games, but the variety isn't much and so offers a great opportunity for a new niche player to tap into the growing product e-commerce market.

In short, I believe that Indian games and toys market is still a huge opportunity for a big local player to tap into. Innovating board / concept games to make sure group games last for hours together, creating stand-alone toy stores for affordability, setting up online games stores for easy accessibility and introducing the concept of toy library are some things which can be taken to tap the huge potential Indian toy & games market has to offer.

What after IT growth declines?

The past decade in India has been majorly driven by the growth in IT and ITes. This sector has been the job creator for the last decade especially among the rising number of engineers. The IT companies have been well known to provide jobs to college graduates of any engineering field as long as he/she is able to read and write properly :P. But son a serious note, the majority of the employment generated during the past decade has been in this field. However, the future growth of this sector is not looking that strong, Like everything has an expiry date, even the growth of this sector has been and the growth rate in this sector is now falling. Going by reports of Infosys and some Indian major IT companies, the forecast for the next year is bleak and growth shall be tepid in the future.
Lower growth means less hiring and as a result shall lead to unemployment amongst educated Indians. India desperately needs a new sector where the graduates from colleges can be placed like the IT companies. So, which sector shall replace the IT sector? Where shall majority of employment be generated in the future? I ponder over such questions at times.

The new manufacturing policy announced by GOI seems to be the answer to this. The aim of the policy is to generate 100 million jobs in the next decade. While the intention of the policy seems to be right and also the approach seems right, I doubt whether the target of generating 100 million jobs shall be met.

I think that the following reasons will act as a deterent for youths, specially engineers to join manufacturing:
1. Physically tough conditions - Manufacturing generally involves working in industrial areas under tough physical conditions like noise, vibrations, pollution, etc
2. Shifts in factories - Manufacturing generally is ta 24 x 7 continuous job which might involve working in shifts at factories which acts as a big deterent
3. The missing glamour of IT - Factory life doesn't have glamour of the IT grand offices and involves handling unskilled labour.
4. Outside city limits - Factories are geerally situated in industrial areas outside the cities whereas IT jobs could be in the cities as well.
5. Emergence of higher studies - Due to the emergence of higher education centres for management studies, people shall prefer to join some other sector.

The jump by Indians directly to services bypassing manufacturing initially also is a big factor behind rendering manufacturing sector unattractive as an employment sector for engineering youth.
An article from New York times describes a situation in US about lack of sufficient middle class technical manpower to execute big engineering and logistical projects.


I think a similar threat also exists in India if we do not concentrate on building and harnessing sufficient technical skills in this field.
The rising expectations, the growing impatience of the youth,  the want for easy money wihout toiling hard could also turn youth towards service sector like that in US.

Maybe it is time, we focus on developing technical skills necessary to implement and execute the manufacturing policy.

P.S:- In case any person reading have any idea, kindly let me know why is this blog viewed more in countries like Russia, Canada, Lativa and a host of countries where I know no body. I would like the blog to be read by people rather than BOTS.

On morning walks

Inspite of me staying at hostel for so many years and living away from parents, I take pride in calling myself an early riser. I have been an early riser throughout. Right from school till today, I have been waking up early. I believe that one takes less amount of time to complete a work in the morning when compared to night.
This habit I believe has been inherited from my father. He has been an early riser as far as I can remember. His routine of going for a morning walk has seldom been broken and he has been following this routine of going for a morning walk since almost 15 years. The morning walk has made him increase his contacts in the city, make new friends and develop his business. He has obtained quite a lot of clients due to the network developed during the morning walks.

For me morning walk means to enjoy the sunrise, meet new people, talk to them, make a plan for the day and enjoy the nature. Specially during winters. A sense of discipline is inculcated because of this habbit of getting up early and going for a walk. I am not very regular for a walk but make it a point to go for it whenever possible.

However, a few things I see at Mumbai disturbs me. Lack of walking/ jogging parks, long commuting hours and the lifestyle of people has made it really tough for people to be regular for morning walks. Reaching offices on time is by far the biggest tension in minds of most of the people. Also, the evolution of the 'gym culture' has made the people who have time to go to the closed spaces for exercises.

I, fortunately have a good walking track nearby the place I reside. I've been able to know some people in the society I stay. However, most of the people who come for walk [During the time I go] aren't regular. I fail to locate an interesting person the very next day. Nevertheless, it provides me an excellent time to plan for the day, think about work and watch young people playing sports on the ground.

Hope to be more regular at the morning walks, develop good contacts and (show-off :P) get some discipline restored.

Happy New year

I was thinking of putting down how the last year has been for financial markets and stuff like Anna and other political issues :P. But looking at the sheer brilliance of Deepak Shenoy in his year review post (Here), I no longer feel the need anymore. A crsip, humorous & a great sum-up post indeed. Cheers.

So, the year 2011 finally ended. It has been a year when I learnt a lot about human behavior through observations, faced a lot of tough decisions - some with and some without parents' approval, took upon a tough journey hoping for a fruitful end and also spent a lot of time alone introspecting. It has been an year when I spent a lot of time online - both using the desktop and the smartphone onTwitter, FB and more importantly Google reader. I think I have spent more time surfing these sites than that at my home.

Hope to be more productive in this new year and learn lot of new and exciting things.

To all those who read this, wish you a happy new year.

Dependency

Google has been making a lot of changes ever since it launched google plus - trying to integrate all existing functions. Gmail was revamped recently with quite much publicity but very quietly, Google has revamped Google Reader, a reader which has enabled me to read so many things on one platform. Now after revamp, the facility which enabled it to be viewed on my non-android phone has been discontinued and now it takes more time to open articles and to read things on this platform. The seamless reading experience is gone. There being not many good alternatives to this reader, I have to change accordingly now in the way Google wishes to.

Sometimes I wonder how much dependent I am on this company. My job exists because of google since it empowers a novice like me to get relevant information. Had google not been there, the job would have to be done by a much more experienced person. Its like I am too much dependent on the products of this company.

Generally to avoid overdependency on one particular vendor, OEMs develop alternate vendors. Big chemical firms help develop alternate source of raw materials by investing in smaller companies. Investment is done in a lot of instruments to avoid overdependency on one particular instrument and possibly also maximize returns. So, everywhere possible, we try to develop alternatives thereby avoiding dependency, enhancing competition and improving service/product.

But in the case of Google the entry barrier or the technological and data barrier is very high for a new search engine and similarly developed product. I cannot envision even one search engine even close to Google. Alternatives of Google Reader all have major issues with integration and quite a lot of them do depend on google reader for feed as well. There seems no alternatives to these widely used product.

I can't imagine what hell will break when google fails to function even for a single day. So much dependence.

Damn.

Today, we adjust according to them because we have no alternatives. Who knows Google will start charging for conducting searches in the future. What shall we do then?

Its high time someone develops a viable alternative to these useful applications so that if anything undesirable occurs to Google, our lives aren't affected.

Having no other option I have now adjusted my phone according to the new url settings and read but the experience is in no way same. May be thats the price I am paying for not using Android operated phone.

Erosion of shareholder value

Here's an example of how shareholder value is destroyed by PSUs on a continuous basis.

I've come to a conclusion that PSUs do not have the shareholders value in mind at any point of time.

 MOIL:  Share price since its IPO.

If this is what is going to happen, I would prefer there is no disinvestment in the PSUs. 

Heights is how the hell did the lead book managing bankers ( IDBI Capital, Edelweiss Capital and JP Morgan India in this case) manage to price the shares so high. One should learn from these companies to create a hype, make the pitch and sell a useless product with audacity. These I believe are the pure markting companies, guess even better than those FMCG companies. These bankers know how to use their brand power to mobilize money.  A perfect way for government to get public money.

I was thinking of investing in MOIL but thankfully I didn't do so because of my habit of delaying.
No investing in PSUs.

On Bus conductors

I've now got used to traveling by BEST buses in Mumbai for daily commuting and have been observing and talking to the bus conductors about their life and experiences. I used to think that the job of a bus conductor is quite simple but looking at the mental and physical effort put in by them, I have come to a conclusion that the job is really a tough one, especially on crowded routes like Sakinaka where the buses are perennially overcrowded.

The job of a bus conductor not just issuing proper tickets to the commuters but management of a lot of things simultaneously, especially during short crowded routes.He has to see that bus waits for adequate time at bus stops, interact with people with all sorts of background for tickets, not allow the bus to be overcrowded, resolve quarrels, give directions to people to reach their destinations and move back and forth the crowded bus aisle where it is nearly impossible to move. The working conditions are pretty harsh with space barely enough to allow him breathe. At times, they get pretty much worse than a factory worker too.

Their work involves problems like getting exact change especially during mornings when everyone is helpless, getting on time for the next assignment, the union issues, manager (HR) issues who cannot understand traffic conditions and schedules things quite impossible to achieve, etc. The introduction of new ticketing system has made matters worse especially when 1 out of 7 ticketing machines doesn't function as required.
All this for a salary starting with around Rs. 12k/ month and a yearly increase w.r.t an inflation adjusted index.

Yet, despite all these harsh work conditions, the bus conductors, most of them, are some of the most humble people around. Most of them love talking to and are glad to discuss all about their jobs and the BEST when they have free time. "It was very smooth & enjoyable some years back when it wasn't so crowded" said one of them while describing change in their work loads.
This Khadi clad public servant, who is is taken for granted by people, remains one of the many unknown faces who make our life comfortable.

Makes me wonder how come the younger generation which has more hospitable working conditions & better salaries are not be so humble.

I simply love this scene from  'Swades' where a combination of stars depict the simple plough.

Crib

There are times in life when you start thinking about your life and your future. A time when one starts questioning the decisions made by him during crucial junctures of life - future determining decisions. Sometimes I think, I'm generally only operationally sound yet that basic strategy of life (to be followed) is missing and I am taking life as it comes without adequate planning. How different would life be had I accepted the US university offers or had done a PhD or had taken up the bank job offered at my B-School or had not left my first job. Destiny it seems always has different plans, especially for me. I did masters in operations, finance management and, thankfully,  landed up in a marketing job. Never has the normal course of action taken by peers been my course. While it is nice to hear of such absence of strategy in movies (like Jab we met, znmd, etc), implementing it becomes an issue especially when you have financial obligations and peers who are doing way better than you in this regard.

Wonder what life has in store for me in the future.